While the chart above is on a relative indexed basis, it will be interesting to quantify the new liquidity rush coming from the BoE, and soon, from the BOJ and the ECB.
Here is the additional narrative from SocGen's Aneta Markowska:
To the last point: the incremental debt required to fill the tax break hole is precisely where the UST will come up and fill the void with additional issuance... Which the Fed will promptly gobble up as part of QE2 (and Lite) and set the stage for QE3 which will be priced into the market some time in H2 2011, at an expected size of several trillion.What next? Over the coming week, we have a full schedule of Fed speakers from both ends of the hawk-dove spectrum. The Fed's decision is pretty clear in terms of operational details, but what the markets will want to hear is how the Fed expects the new policy to impact the economy. How will the Fed gauge and assess whether the policy is working? We are among those sceptical about the effectiveness of QE2 beyond its ability to anchor inflation expectations from below.
The country has spoken... and it is sick of government spending. With QE2 out of the way, policy watching will now shift to the fiscal front. Following a republican victory in the mid-term elections, fiscal policy is bound to undergo significant changes. The Bush tax cuts are increasingly likely to be extended for all income levels, but after that we see thin prospects for additional fiscal stimulus. The country has spoken, and policy will respond. Republicans are already promising budget cuts to the tune of $100 bn and the Democrats will likely become more sensitive to the issue of fiscal responsibility. Where Republicans and Democrats could potentially agree is on tax breaks for businesses.
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