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Thursday, November 18, 2010

QE2

Why are US 'leaders' and media saying QE2 is ~$75B per month? It's much higher than that.
QE2 = $600B + [MBS 're-investment'] ($250B+$300B)/2) = $875B
Set to run 7.5 months, or ~33 weeks, therefore;
QE2 = $875B / 7.5 = $116.6B per month
QE2 = $875B / 33 = $26.5B per week
So why do the media keep referring to ~$75 billion per month when the Fed has said it is going to be doing about 36% more $$$ 'stimulus' than this, in monthly averages?
And why in the wash-up of the G20 is anyone in the media seriously suggesting there's been an agreement to a, "...cease-fire in the currency war..." (the 'phony-war' that is yet to get-a-killin' ...)? What justifies that assertion?
There is no 'cease-fire', and there won't be a cease-fire, and there cannot be a ceasefire. The US Govt has effectively abdicated its economic policy responsibilities to the Fed as of early 2009, and has since been trying desperately not to hold or be held responsible for economic policy again, as the economy lunches itself and spits out the pips.
We all know how proficient the Fed is at optimizing economic policy incentives, and we know of its erudite 'philosophy', its impeccable judgment and its perfect timing ... oh, and its remarkable predictive capacities.
A Washington that's overwhelmingly concerned with not ruffling-feathers or creating a "bad look" via acting in the best interests of 100% of the population is never going to harness an effective and credible economic policy.
What this is, is the NET effect of decades of pretending, both in the private and public spheres, that the US is much richer than it really is, or can become.
That's ultimately why all the debt grew, the allowance of that grand delusion, deliberately propagated without restriction or significant challenge by the so-called 'Leadership' clique (and especially not by the Fed in particular). It was THE grand lie, the mother of all subsequent lies over the decades, and most people in a position to know, knew the 'growth' modes they sprouted were a deadly lie. And almost none of them had the inner-spark to assert the Emperor was actually stark-bollocks-naked. Until that futile pretense is entirely ripped away and held to open ridicule and this 'Leadership' clique is required to actually directly and without obfuscating explain this naked lie, there can be no re-emergence of real economic stability, because there can be (and will be) no sustainable policy formulation and implementation - until then.
Hence the Fed's "Great Immoderation" has begun to reveal what the 'Leadership' was terminally afraid to admit. And terminal is the right word because what we see the Fed now doing is analogous to the end scenes of Terminator-2, where the liquid Terminator falls into molten metal and as it mixes in it tries a rapid-fire run through its repertoire of past morphing tricks and forms as it discovers none of them can make any difference to the new and terminal situation. The question is; do you want the Fed to survive, like it did the 1930s?
Even if the answer is no; what would ever preserve you from a small-l ‘leadership’ class that's premeditatedly intent on lying endlessly in order to have power over you even to the extent of 'misleading' you to your destruction?

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